(Stats to be updated after Churchill Downs’ Sunday card is completed)

We have had a few nice plays of late, despite being a little weak on the “win” front. We closed out Saturday night with a huge exacta ($104.70 for $1 play) when one of our top long shot plays came in a robust 2nd. We had another exacta on Sunday at Churchill Downs that heaped a few dollars into the cash register, too (paying $84.10 for each $1 played).

But we are hoping to restore our track “credit” in the win-place-show categories and the start starts now. So to speak.

Here’s our looks for the Monday card at Horseshoe Indianapolis:

1st: 8-4-6/1-5/7-3-2…Indy Rebel (8) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter up in Shelbyville, IN on Monday. This 4YO gelded son of Unbridled Express is an Indiana-bred and has run over this strip 9 previous times. But? Only a 2nd and a 3rd on the resume. Will drop all the way from the MSW ranks to the $5,000 claiming level here, though, and the last time this one was offered up for $10,000, he did run a credible 2nd. Chance here. Better take advantage of this one. Spinel (4) has run two poor ones in a row this year after a very nice 2nd to begin the career last July — a year ago. But this one drops from the MSW ranks into the $5,000 “bargain bin” here, as well, for a top barn connection. Trainer wins with .25% when making this plunge. Rider has won with .16% in the last 45 mounts for this barn, too. Chance. Little John Colony (6) ran at this level last time out and was nowhere to be found. Had some issues in that one and this time gets a new rider up. Barn wins with .33% of those returning as a beaten favorite. Is 0-2-1 in 13 starts here. Hmmm. I bet the 8-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1-4 in two smaller units, too.

2nd: 8/2-1/4-7-5/3/6…The first “Key Play of the Day”  comes here with Harlans Princess (8). This 4YO daughter of Cairo Prince goes for a top barn operation in these parts, and it is winning at a .21% clip here this meet after 78 starts. This one has won two in a row and looks poised here, too, with a drop in class. Look out here. Has speed and can carry. I’m in. I bet the 8 across the board and then key the 8 over/under the 2-1-4-7-5 in the exactas. More with the 2-1 than the rest.

3rd: 7/10-8-5-1/3/2-4-6…The second “Key Play of the Day”  comes here with Tiz Tat Toe (7). This 4YO gelding ships in for trainer Tom Amoss, who is winning at a .39% rate here after 33 starts this meeting. Will make the first start for this top-notch barn operation and it wins with .10% of those kind. But? This one drops from the $50,000 tag to the $15,000 rate here and the barn wins with .37% when cutting the loss this much. Looks sharp for this effort. I bet the 7 across the board and then key the 7 over/under the 10-8-5-1-3 in the exactas. 

4th: 6-4-1/2-7/8/5/3-9…Lil Evie (6) gets the nod here for trainer Kim Hammond. This 3YO Indiana-bred filly has run here 8 times previously. Has a nice mark of 2-3-1. Drops out of two Stakes races into this allowance and should be salty at this level. Look out here. Brookville Storm (4) has run two very nice 2nds in a row here and the 2022 debut was spot on. Lost by a head drop. Gets the regular rider back and could be a tough out. But? Only 2 wins in 22 tries here. Lexi Sun (1) has a shot here, too, for a top trainer. Comes off a pressing and tiring 5th in a Stakes last time out. That was in the slop. Gets a dry track here and that could be a huge difference for this one, leaving on the rail. I bet the 6-1 — take note — across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 6-1 over/under the 4-2-7-8 in two smaller units.

5th: 3-12/2/9-10/8/1-5-7-11…Shesacleverjustice (3) gets the leg up here, for me. This one goes for a top barn, which is beginning to heat up in these quarters. Look for more this time out with a switch to the meet’s top rider. Big edge here. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-12 in the exactas. I will key the 3 over/under the 12-2-9-10-8 in two smaller units.

6th: 2-10/7-9-11/1-12-(13)/5-6-3-4-8…Full disclosure here. We own part of Wire the Cash (2). So, naturally, we will be rooting like crazy for this 3YO son of Majestic Harbor. Wish we had gotten a little more ground to work with, but he ran super well coming from off the pace in the career debut and that was at 5.5-furlongs. We hope the extra distance will help and the experience should aid him, too. He can run. We are going to bet. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the 2-10 in the exactas. Sternly. Strongly. I will key the 2 over/under the 10-7-9-11-1-12 in two smaller units, as well. 

7th: 8-3/2-9-11/6/4/1-5/(13)-(14)…Hawk of War (8) gets our top saddle spot here. This 5YO gelding won the last time out and now has hit the board in three in a row. Also has hit the board in 4 of the last 5. Has a 3rd in only previous run here. But the last win at Churchill Downs was spot on. Got to like the return here for a rider who is winning at a .28% clip and with .16% of the last 31 to run over the sod here. Freedom’s Way (3) gets a shout-out, too. This one ran huge at KEE on April 16 and could have easily won that affair. In 5 tries over the sod now, this one has a win and two 2nds. Gets a rider to travel up from LOU with the colt. Look out. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 8-3 in the exactas. I will key the 8-3 over/under the 2-9-11-6-4 in two smaller units.

8th: 12-6/1-3-7-8/10/4-5-9-11/2…Aftertheconquest (12) will make the career debut in this sod effort for the barn of Brad Cox. Trainer is winning with .31% of the first 29 starts here. Gets a top rider, who has won with .29% for this barn operation so far this meet. This one comes from a dam who has already thrown a sod winner and is by the Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Lots to like. And, the 6-1 ML odds are pretty solid, too. Fidelio (6) may be the main competition here. This 3YO colt is by Into Mischief (wow) and is also from the Cox barn. Picks up the top rider for the assignment. No way you will get 10-1 on this one, either. But? I bet both of the Cox horses across the board and then box them sternly in the exactas. I will key the 12-6 over/under the 1-3-7-8-10 in two smaller units. 

9th: (11)-3/1-9-(12)/6-(13)/2-5-8/4…The first Quarter Horse event of the day and I will go to the AE List for my top selection — Alota Login (11). This one comes from the barn of Randy Smith, who scores a lot in these parts. This one ran 2nd last time out and the winner of that one came right back to win the next outing, too. Look out here. Big shot. I bet the 11 across the board and then box the 11-3 in the exactas. I will key the 11 over/under the 3-1-9-12-6-13 in two smaller units.

10th: 8-9/3-5-4/2-6/1-7/10…This is the day’s finale and another QH event. I will gear up with Knockout Queen (8) — a first time starter for Team Smith and one who has been working lights out for the career debut here, too. This Indiana-bred looks poised for a big outing. Main competition may come to the filly’s outside and by Runaway Beach Chic (9). This is another one who has trained well and comes from strong connections. I bet the 8-9 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 8-9 over (only) the 3-5-4-2-6 in another smaller unit. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene

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