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Good Monday morning. This is Emilio Casalicchio. Eleni Courea will be back on the case Tuesday and Wednesday.

IT’S EFFING HOT: Temperatures in Britain are this afternoon expected to hit the 40°C mark for the first time since … 🤔 … massive lizards roamed the Earth? If thermometers rise above 38.7°C (recorded at Cambridge Botanic Garden in 2019) it will be a brand new record matching Saharan levels of pain. Expect Britain to cope with intense heat about as well as it copes with intense cold, with transport up the spout, schools closing and health services struggling to cope. It’s going to be a sweaty start to the week, so watch where you point your glands.

Westminster weather: According to the BBC, temperatures around parliament are set to edge up from the low 20s now to an excruciating 39°C by 4 p.m. The torment will hold there before starting to edge back down after 6 p.m. It’s a good job MPs don’t have lots of important business on this afternoon, such as … picking the next leader of our country. Drink lots of water and cower in the shade wherever possible. Oh, and watch out for spontaneous fires in the palace; they could spread. 

Speaking of the Conservative race: A new poll for the Times reveals Conservative members literally couldn’t care less about cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Hitting net zero came bottom of a list of 10 priorities, behind (surprise, surprise) cutting personal taxes and hiking defense spending. Just 4 percent of respondents said saving the planet was in their top three priorities for the next prime minister. Good job these people don’t have our future in their hands. Oh … 

Getting in on the action: Labour is setting out plans to boost U.K. preparedness for future national emergencies including heatwaves. The proposals include a new cabinet sub-committee and reviewing the COBR meetings Boris Johnson often skipped.

Also relevant: The joint committee on national security has a well-timed session this afternoon on what the government is doing to protect critical infrastructure from climate change. Defra Minister Steve Double and Energy Minister Greg Hands are up at 4.30 p.m.

Now read this: It is, of course, not just the U.K. in the grips of a heatwave. My POLITICO colleagues Karl Mathiesen, Eddy Wax, Antonia Zimmermann and Zia Weise have a piece about how Europe is staring into one of its driest summers in living memory.

EASING INTO THE ROUTINE: It’s groundhog day for Conservative leadership hopefuls, with more closed-door hustings and another knockout round of voting. Expectations are that foreign affairs committee Chair Tom Tugendhat will be out on his ear this evening and will have to make a “clean start” on his next leadership bid.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this contest is guaranteed. 

Order of business: The candidates have a hustings with the 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers at 2 p.m. (37°C) before voting opens for round three of the race between 5 p.m. and 7 p.m. (37°C). There’s no threshold to meet, it’s just whoever comes last gets eliminated. 1922 Chair Graham Brady will be revealing the results in committee room 14 at 8 p.m. (35°C).

The big question … is how the MPs who backed now-eliminated right-winger Suella Braverman vote tonight. How many will follow orders from ERG chief Mark Francois and back Truss, and how many will take a punt on Kemi Badenoch? George Grylls reports in the Times that a fair few will choose the latter, while the i newspaper’s Arj Singh hears Truss is expecting to pick up 13 of the 18 Braverman votes.

What could swing it … as well as the 1922 committee hustings, the ferocious ITV debate last night will be fresh in the minds of voting Conservatives. 

Waking up with bruises: The all-out bundle was excellent TV, with fierce moments, amusing moments, depressing moments and farcical moments, all of it delivered through pained grimaces and nervous laughter. Like with the Channel 4 bout, most of the bickering was about economics and whether the government should tax less or … not tax less. There are various takes around, but here are Playbook’s …

Take 1 — It’s Rishi vs. All: Most of the leadership hopefuls were piling into Rishi Sunak as the man to beat, at least at this stage in the proceedings. He’s the sole candidate not vowing to cut taxes as fast as possible (and also happens to be the sole candidate who’s seen the damage from inside HMT in the wake of the pandemic). But Sunak hit back hard, accusing Liz Truss of “socialist” economics and telling Penny Mordaunt even ex-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was against her plan to ditch a fiscal rule. He also had a strong line on his wife and in-laws being mega rich. 

Take 2 — There’s no cash left (kinda): All the candidates are comfortable handing a real-terms wage cut to public sector workers, as none of them want to hike salaries to more than the 5 percent independent bodies are suggesting. But also … no one has a convincing plan to avert the inevitable mass strikes. Chris Giles from the FT pointed out last night that candidates reckon public sector wage hikes would stoke inflation, but don’t seem to think the same about their proposed tax cuts, which would cost LOADS more.

Take 3 — Boris Johnson is (still) a liability: One of the most striking moments of the debate was when no candidate raised their hand to have Boris Johnson in their Cabinet. It was a bit like the Channel 4 debate when audience members kept asking about truth and trust and being honest. It’s clear from both debates that good old BoJo did some serious damage to the Conservative brand. 

Indeed … one senior Conservative MP put it to Playbook thus: “Boris is going to cost the Conservatives one f**k of a lot of votes. He’s changed the terms of trade towards us. A lot of people think he’s an ocean-going, copper-bottomed, gaff-rigged c**t.”

Take 4 — No one wants face-time with Bad Vlad: Truss was the lone candidate willing to sit down with Russian President Vladimir Putin so she can tell him he’s a bellend to his face.

Take 5 — ITV aced it: The broadcaster jazzed things up to make the debate feel more like an episode of The Weakest Link (or Pointless?) than a plod through the motions. The usual dull opening and closing statements were kept as brief as possible, while top host Julie Etchingham encouraged the rivals to slag each other off to their faces. When she urged Truss to smack Sunak for slunking out of Cabinet during the Ukraine crisis, Truss went ahead and did it. Glorious. 

And of course … Getting the candidates to ask each other questions was a stroke of genius. Sunak asking Truss whether she most regretted being a Remainer or a Lib Dem was the standout moment, and it was clear he felt awks going in for the kill. The Truss response was good, noting that her school wasn’t as posh as his … although she’s bragged in the past about her run-of-the-mill comp producing three MPs (h/t David Conn of the Guardian), which is three more than almost all schools. 

What the pundits thought: The FT’s Seb Payne said Sunak and Truss were the winners after an improved performance from the foreign secretary compared with her Channel 4 outing. Tom Harwood from GB News argued Truss saved herself from leaking votes to Badenoch. TalkTV’s Julia Hartley Brewer said Mordaunt had a bad night. The Sun’s Harry Cole said Sunak would “take Mordaunt apart all summer if it’s the two of them.” Playbook’s own Eleni Courea reckoned Badenoch and Tugendhat forfeited their chances of a surprise breakthrough. 

And the sketch-writers: In the Times, Quentin Letts likened the debate to “an amuse-bouche for Murder In Provence.” Enough said. 

What the public thought: Voters thought Sunak came out on top, according to a snap poll from Opinium. Some 24 percent thought he did best overall, compared to 19 percent for Tugendhat, 17 percent for Mordaunt, 15 percent for Truss and 12 percent for Badenoch. Sunak was the top pick among Conservative voters, Labour voters and swing voters. 

But but but: The results threw up some varied outcomes … for example Tugendhat was the only candidate more people thought would be a good PM than a bad PM, while asked if any of the candidates definitely should not become PM, most (48 percent) chose Truss. It’s all in this thread.

Also worth a look: The Sun has a bunch of word clouds showing what people think about the candidates. 

What the betting markets thought: Rishi is rising while Truss is closing the gap on Mordaunt. See the chart here. 

READY FOR RISHI: Sunak is looking to chip down some Truss support this morning with a promise to “redouble” efforts to help Ukraine defeat the Russian invasion. In comments to Natasha Clark in the Sun, the frontrunner pledges to make Kyiv his first foreign trip as PM.

But but but: Sunak is facing questions over his pledge to repeal all retained EU laws before the next election, after Bloomberg’s Alex Wickham published HMT advice arguing the plan would not be possible.

Also worth asking Sunak: “Almost a fifth of a million small businesses have fallen into arrears on their [COVID] bounceback loan repayments, far more than the number officially published,” Patrick Hosking reports in the Times. 

PM FOR PM: Mordaunt comes in for more flak from the Daily Mail this morning, with a front page screaming that she met the Muslim Council of Britain when ministers were banned from doing so over concerns about the group appearing to condone attacks on British troops. Did the Sun’s Harry Cole trigger the Mail? 

In better news for Mordaunt: Ten Ukrainian MPs have called on their Conservative counterparts in Britain to back Mordaunt to be the next prime minister. In a joint statement, the MPs from three different Ukrainian parties (including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party) argued she was the best hope of seeking a peaceful resolution to the war with Russia.

And speaking of Zelenskyy: The Ukrainian president announced the biggest shake-up of his government since the start of the war, removing his Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova and security services chief Ivan Bakanov, as POLITICO’s Christopher Miller reports. Chris was the first to reveal in June that Zelenskyy was considering removing Bakanov, a childhood friend of the president.

LIZ FOR LEADER: There’s still no suggestion Truss will do a proper broadcast interview during the campaign, but her team is bullish about her prospects, arguing the next election will be about economics and that “other rivals to Rishi can’t hold a flame to Liz on that.”

To be fair: Former Downing Street aide Nick Timothy writes in the Telegraph that the big Conservative divide is about cutting taxes or not cutting taxes, and that since Truss and Sunak are the main voices for the two camps it should be them who go through to the final two. 

KEMI FOR PM: Badenoch sets out her stall on stopping the police investigating online abuse in comments to the Mail’s John Stevens. She also pledges to reduce childcare costs by cutting business rates for nurseries and scrapping regulation in the sector. Natasha Clark got the scoop in the Sun. 

Going nowhere: Whatever happens to Badenoch this week, even rivals think they haven’t seen the last of her. If Truss falters, the eight is seemingly lining her up to be their next candidate of choice. “Running doesn’t have to mean winning, running means getting ready to win later,” one MP backing Truss, but an admirer of Badenoch, tells POLITICO’s Annabelle Dickson in this excellent piece on the self-proclaimed “wildcard” candidate. In the meantime, a former adviser thinks she has a strong claim to be in the next Cabinet. “The dynamic of the race has damaged some people’s reputations; hers isn’t one of them,” they reckon.

There’s more: The Times has a deep dive on her background growing up in Nigeria.

TIME FOR TUGENDHAT: Team TT reckons it’s all to play for in the vote tonight. “There’s a lot of soft votes and the public polling shows the more they see him the more they warm to him,” one campaign aide said. The candidate has given an interview to Oliver Wright in the Times in which he says the Channel 4 debate last week was “one of the first times I’ve had proper make-up on that isn’t camo cream.” So on brand.  

Now hear this: International Trade Secretary and TT supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan is doing a phone-in on LBC Radio at 9 a.m.

**Get prime access to exclusive reliable scoops on the policy developments that matter to you. Through the Pro platform, you can track legislation, cases, transcripts, press releases, social media, and more across the UK and EU. Learn more here.**

GET THE BBQ FIRED UP: Some 130 people munched on burgers and sipped deluxe sparkling wine in the sun at Chequers yesterday as Boris Johnson held his farewell bash before being booted out of Downing Street. 

Spotted: Health Secretary Steve Barclay … Brexit Opportunities Minister Jacob Rees-Mogg … Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries … Education Secretary James Cleverly … Work and Pensions Secretary Thérèse Coffey … Transport Secretary Grant Shapps … Briefless Minister Nigel Adams … Northern Ireland Minister Conor Burns … Cabinet Office Minister Kit Malthouse … Red wall MP Mark Jenkinson … Downing Street aides Rosie Bate-Williams … Simone Finn … Declan Lyons … Sophia True … Ben Gascoigne … and many, many more, including Dylan the dog, who was scampering around and hoping to nab the odd scrap.

On the BBQ: Guests got stuck into sausages, burgers and chargrilled chicken with pasta salad, plus fresh strawberries and cream for pudding. 

The wine list: English wines from Coates & Seely and Balfour. A touch of class.  

Speaker’s corner: Johnson delivered a speech described by one pal as a “tub-thumper” that touched on promises such as leveling up and rolling out better broadband. He thanked MPs and staffers for their work through one of the maddest premierships ever, including Brexit, a global pandemic and vaccine rollout and war in Europe. He also thanked those who helped him secure the biggest Conservative majority since 1987.

It was classic BoJo: Relentless in its optimism and laced with gags. “It was the sort of speech you could have imagined him delivering in 2024 and getting a mandate from the country with,” the pal said. “It was almost as if he was convincing those die-hard loyalists in front of him that he’s still the best man for the job.” Another said the speech was “incredible” and contained lots of laughter and tears, with guests asking each other “what the hell” critics had done in bringing him down. 

On Ukraine: Shapps and Adams took along the Ukrainian families living with them under the government refugee scheme. Johnson told them the U.K. would never turn its back on the Ukrainian people.

Coming attraction: Channel 4 announces this morning that it’s working on a big documentary series about Johnson. Playbook expects it’ll exonerate him for everything.

BOJO’S DAY: The PM might be spotted skulking around Farnborough Air Show before heading back to parliament for a confidence vote in his government. No. 10 didn’t answer last night on whether Johnson would be fighting his corner in the debate. He is expected to be across the heatwave too, and will no doubt do a little self-sweltering.

HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with defense questions, followed by any UQs or statements. Then comes the no-confidence motion and debate. Don’t expect the government to lose, of course.

ON COMMITTEE CORRIDOR: The Scottish affairs committee has a hearing on carbon capture in Scotland (3 p.m.) … The leveling up bill will be scrutinized (4 p.m.) … and senior Treasury officials will be quizzed by the public accounts committee on assessments needed for big infrastructure projects (4 p.m.).

HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with questions on withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights and whether the queen should add “the faithful” to her title, followed by the second and final day of the Schools Bill’s report stage.

KEIR UNDER FIRE: Labour leader Keir Starmer has come under fire from the Campaign Against Anti-Semitism for using the Holocaust memorial in Berlin for a Labour campaign clip. Dominic Kennedy has a write-up in the Times. 

Speaking of Labour: The opposition will fight to take ownership of the “leveling up” promise this afternoon with a pledge to help communities purchase local assets like pubs, football clubs and historic buildings. During a speech in Darlington, Shadow Leveling Up Secretary Lisa Nandy will accuse the Tories of having ditched the “leveling up” mantra, after the leadership candidates all promised tax cuts that could reduce the cash available for investment. Caroline Wheeler reported in the Sunday Times that the “leveling up” slogan could become a victim of the leadership contest.  

In quotes: “Those voices in the Tory Party who tried to advance the leveling up agenda have been roundly defeated and now the ugly truth of this is on full display as leadership contenders vie for the mantle of Margaret Thatcher, promising tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation and more managed decline across Britain,” Nandy will declare. “This leadership contest looks set to be the final nail in the coffin for the Conservatives’ short-lived ambitions to level up.” The speech will be streamed on Twitter from 1 p.m. Nandy is on the broadcast round right now.

FUTURE OF THE BBC LATEST: The BBC should consider replacing the licence fee with a new charge linked to council tax, the Lords media committee writes in a long-awaited report about funding the broadcaster. The peers concluded that the current regime is “regressive” and that the BBC needs to shape up or face serious decline.

BOE BATTLE: The FT reports that the government is gearing up for a fight with the Bank of England over plans to deregulate the City of London. Expect details from new Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi in his Mansion House speech Tuesday, and expect the Financial Services Bill to appear on Wednesday. 

NO ONE SAW THIS COMING: “A new report has warned that the government’s efforts to curb Channel crossings using the threat of deportation to Rwanda are ‘unrealistic’ and will ‘not succeed,’” John Johnston reports for PoliticsHome. Full report from the home affairs committee here.

DON’T DO DRUGS, OR ELSE: The Home Office has launched a consultation this morning on beefing up penalties for recreational drug users. The proposals include fines and drug courses for casual users of cannabis, as well as the confiscation of their passports and driving licenses. Marijuana users could also end up on three months of randomized drug testing, be forced to wear a drugs tag or banned from specific locations. 

THE MACHINES ARE PLOTTING: The Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport this morning sets out plans to “UNLEASH INNOVATION” in artificial intelligence by … regulating it. It comes as the Data Protection and Digital Information Bill is introduced to parliament.

Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Kit Malthouse broadcast round: Today program (7.10 a.m.) … Sky News (7.20 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.35 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.).

Shadow Leveling Up Secretary Lisa Nandy broadcast round: Times Radio (7.35 a.m.) … Sky News (8.05 a.m.) … talkTV (8.20 a.m.) … LBC (8.50 a.m.).

Also on the Today program: Network Rail’s Jake Kelly (7.30 a.m.) … Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England Dr Thomas Waite (8.10 a.m.).

Also on Kay Burley (Sky News): Sunak supporter Liam Fox (7.30 a.m.) … Ukraine special envoy on sanctions Oleksii Makeiv (7.45 a.m.) … Tugendhat supporter John Stevenson (8.20 a.m.) … Mordaunt supporter Bob Seely (8.45 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast (LBC): Phone-in with Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan (9 a.m.).

Also on Times Radio: Sunak supporter Liam Fox (7.20 a.m.) … Opinium pollster Chris Curtis (8.05 a.m.) … Tech Minister and Mordaunt supporter Damian Collins (8.05 a.m.) … NHS Providers Director of Communications Adam Brimelow (8.15 a.m.) … Armed Forces Minister and Truss supporter James Heappey (8.40 a.m.).

Also on TalkTV breakfast: Tugendhat supporter Nickie Aiken (7.30 a.m.) … Badenoch supporter Rachel Maclean (8.05 a.m.) … Brexit Opportunities Minister — and Truss supporter — Jacob Rees-Mogg (8.30 a.m.) … Sunak supporter Liam Fox (9.05 a.m.) … Mordaunt supporter Bob Seely (9.45 a.m.).

The Briefing with Gloria De Piero (GB News at 12.00 p.m.): Tugendhat supporter Stephen Hammond … Labour MPs Vicky Foxcroft and Tonia Antoniazzi … Independent MP Neil Coyle.

Cross question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Sunak supporting Tory MP Chris Skidmore … Shadow Trade Secretary Nick Thomas-Symonds … Lib Dem MP Layla Moran … Former No. 10 head of press Giles Kenningham.

Reviewing the papers tonight: Sky News (10.30 and 11.30 p.m.): The Mirror’s Pippa Crerar and the Times’ Matt Dathan.

(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page.)

Daily Express: End to smears? No chance! Race for No 10 gets personal.

Daily Mail: Mordaunt flouted No 10 ban to meet boycotted group.

Financial Times: Battle looms over plans for City shake-up to prime ‘Big Bang 2.0.’

i: Mordaunt and Truss No10 rivalry ignites.

POLITICO UK: Kemi Badenoch — Britain’s next prime minister-but-one?

PoliticsHome: Penny Mordaunt calls for end to ‘toxic politics’ amid Tory leadership attacks.

The Daily Telegraph: Heatwave meltdown brings U.K. to a halt.

The Guardian: Red alert — ‘Ferocious’ heatwave set to send temperatures beyond 40C.

The Independent: Protect U.K. from extreme heat, ministers urged.

The Sun: Hotter than the Sahara.

The Times: Sunak attacks ‘socialist’ Truss.

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: ☀️ ☀️☀️ Be careful out there.

NEW GIG: Former Downing Street director of comms Jack Doyle is joining the Headland PR firm. It means the one-time Mail journo will be working alongside fellow ex-No. 10 spinner Ben Mascall.

PARLY RADIO: It’s an MP takeover on the LBC James O’Brien show this week. Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner fills in for the presenter today from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m., with former Health Secretary Matt Hancock up Tuesday, (probably) doomed Tory leadership hopeful Tom Tugendhat on Wednesday, failed Tory leadership candidate Jeremy Hunt on Thursday and Shadow Health Secretary (and next Labour leader?) Wes Streeting on Friday.

SPOTTED … At LBC presenter Iain Dale‘s 60th birthday party on the rooftop terrace at the Hippodrome on Friday lunchtime: Shadow Cabinet members Wes Streeting, Emily Thornberry, Nick Thomas-Symonds and Jonathan Reynolds … Health Minister Gillian Keegan … Former Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis … Tory MP Andrew Mitchell … Former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith … Former Labour MP Caroline Flint … Labour Women’s Network Director Claire Reynolds … Tory peer and donor David Brownlow … Assorted hacks, broadcasters and other journos including Peter Riddell … Simon Walters … Kevin Maguire … Michael Crick … Yasmin Alibhai-Brown … Adam Boulton … Jeremy Vine … Jane Garvey … Emily Maitlis … Liam Halligan … Darren Grimes … Ayesha Hazarika … Julia Hartley-Brewer … James Max … Chris Mason … Grant Tucker … Angie Greaves … Antonello Guerrera … Andrew Marr … Tom Swarbrick … Home Office spinner Jonathan Isaby … CCHQ’s Tom Skinner … Former UKIP deputy leader Suzanne Evans … InHouse’s Jo Tanner … LBC Iain Dale producer Corey Froggatt … LBC Westminster chief Caroline Allen … and Global big bosses James Rea and Tom Cheal.

BIRTHDAYS: Northampton South MP Andrew Lewer … Former Vale of Clwyd MP Chris Ruane … Former Lib Dem Pensions Minister Steve Webb … Lib Dem peer Rupert Mitford.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Andrew McDonald and producer Grace Stranger.

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